“Future of Migration to Europe” – joint conference – Day 2

2023 May 08

Currently, about 3.4% of the world’s population are international migrants – they have left their country of birth and settled in a new country. Global migration is expected to increase due to population growth and increased mobility resulting from rising income in poorer countries, political unrest, and climate change.

On 26-27 April 2023, the conference "Future Migration to Europe" took place in Brussels and online, gathering a multidisciplinary group of academics, practitioners, and policymakers to address some of the most pressing questions about migration projections and their impact on evidence-based policy development.

Improving the evidence for migration policy making

Date: 2023 April 27
Physical venue: European Parliament

The policy day gathered policymakers, practitioners and migration research scholars to discuss the main findings of two Horizon 2020-funded projects - HumMingBird & FUME, and their potential implications for the migration policies on European, national and local levels.

Scroll down to explore the conference keynotes, research insights and round table discussions. Click on the speakers' names with the arrow to see their slides.


Welcome by

  • Malin Björk, MEP, the European Parliament

  • Hans Schoemaker, Deputy Head Of Division at European External Action Service

What are the future European migration policy perspectives?

Keynote speaker: Magnus Ovilius, Head of Sector Forecasting, Preparedness and Policy Monitoring at the European Commission


Introduction to FUME & HumMingBird projects

What will migration to Europe look like in the future? Models and scenarios from the projects

This session discusses the potential future migration patterns to Europe, based on the projections developed by Horizon 2020 projects. Researchers compare the results of migration scenarios and their demographic impacts on EU member states and regions of origin. Ultimately, the session encourages critical reflection and stimulates discussion on how to best prepare for and respond to potential future migration patterns.

Moderator: Carsten Kessler

Speakers from the projects:


  • Magnus Ovilius, Head of Sector Forecasting, Preparedness and Policy Monitoring at the European Commission

  • Francesco Luciani, Head of the Migration and Forced Displacement Unit, Directorate General International Partnership, European Commission (online)

Round Table 1: Promises and perils of innovative approaches for the migration studies – Political and academic perspectives

This round table discussion is designed for policymakers seeking to stay informed about the latest innovative approaches for projecting future migration patterns. The discussion highlights potential applications, benefits and risks of migration projections on multiple geographical levels.

Moderators: Carsten Kessler

Speakers from the projects:


  • Damien Jusselme, IOM GMDAC

  • Dr. Stefano Iacus, IQQS Harvard

Round Table 2: From migration models & scenarios to policy decisions – Political and academic perspectives 

This round table discussion explores the impact of future migration projections on migration policy development. It provides an opportunity for policymakers to engage with migration and refugee experts on how to translate migration models and scenarios into evidence-based policy decisions.

Moderators: Tuba Bircan

Speakers from the projects:

  • Prof Ides Nicaise, KU Leuven, Tom Devriendt, Caritas International, Dr. Basak Yavçan, Migration Policy Group,  HumMingBird

  • Timothy Heleniak & Nora Sánchez Gassen (online), Nordregio - FUME


  • Luca Lixi, DG Research and Innovation, European Commission

  • Ann Singleton, The University of Bristol

  • Susanne Klink, Snr. Livelihoods and Economic Inclusion Officer, UNHCR Bureau for Europe (online)

  • Dr. Daniel Silberstein, Delegation for Migration Studies Sweden (online)